OpenAI launched Instant Checkout with one partner. Google waited, then showed up with an army.
Yesterday at the National Retail Federation conference, Google unveiled the Universal Commerce Protocol backed by Shopify, Stripe, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, Target, Walmart, Wayfair, Best Buy, Home Depot, and 20+ more companies.
This isn't about better technology. It's about who controls the infrastructure that makes AI commerce possible.
The Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) creates a shared standard for AI agents to handle product discovery, checkout, and post-purchase support. Instead of every AI agent building custom connections to every retailer, UCP provides one protocol that works everywhere. It's compatible with Agent2Agent (A2A), Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), and Model Context Protocol (MCP). The full specification is available on GitHub.
Google's immediate implementation: native checkout in AI Mode and Gemini. Buy from eligible US retailers without leaving the AI conversation. Retailers keep customer relationships and transaction data.
Three products launched that directly impact how you'll sell in the next 12 months. Business Agent creates a branded AI assistant on your Google Search presence. Direct Offers lets you show exclusive discounts when shoppers demonstrate purchase intent. Expanded Merchant Center attributes prepare your product data for conversational discovery.
What you're about to get:
Complete breakdown of all three tools (Business Agent, Direct Offers, Merchant Center)
Your action timeline (what to do this week vs. next quarter)
Product data strategy that makes you discoverable in AI conversations
Why Amazon's absence from this coalition matters for your strategy
Google just changed how AI commerce works. Here's what to do about it:
What Google Actually Launched
Business Agent
A branded AI assistant appears on Google Search when people search for your company. Users see a "Chat" button. The agent answers questions in your brand voice, helps with product discovery, and guides purchase decisions.
Live now: Lowe's, Michael's, Poshmark, Reebok. US retailers can activate through Merchant Center.
Coming in the next few months: Train the agent on your data, access conversation insights, present product offers, and enable purchases directly in the chat interface. That last capability matters most. Checkout without leaving the conversation.
Direct Offers
New Google Ads format for AI Mode. Show exclusive discounts when shoppers demonstrate purchase intent. "Sponsored deal: 20% off" appears directly in the AI conversation.
Currently testing: Petco, e.l.f. Cosmetics, Samsonite, Rugs USA, Shopify merchants.
Current limitation: Discount-only. Bundles and free shipping formats rolling out later.
Expanded Merchant Center Attributes
Google is adding dozens of data fields designed for conversational discovery:
Answers to common product questions
Compatible accessories
Substitute product recommendations
Use case scenarios
Material care details
Rolling out to select retailers first, broader access in coming months.
The Economics Shift Most Teams Aren't Discussing
Here's what changes when AI mediates your transactions:
Traffic patterns compress. Discovery, consideration, and purchase happen in one conversation. Your Analytics shows fewer sessions but potentially higher transaction values. The traditional funnel collapses into a single interaction.
Brand presence gets redistributed. Business Agent maintains your voice, but you operate inside Google's interface. You keep transaction data and customer relationships. Google controls the discovery moment where purchase decisions form.
Product data becomes discoverable inventory. When someone asks for "durable laptop bag for daily commuting," the AI doesn't visit your site. It queries structured data you've submitted to Google. If you haven't documented that your bag has padded protection, reinforced stitching, and water resistance, you're invisible in that conversation.
Why Google's Coalition Matters More Than The Protocol
Google's announcement included Shopify, Stripe, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, American Express, Target, Walmart, Etsy, Wayfair, Best Buy, Home Depot, Macy's, Flipkart, and Zalando.
OpenAI's Instant Checkout launched with Stripe.
This isn't about superior technology. It's about ecosystem control. Google moved slowly, then arrived with institutional backing that startups can't replicate.
Amazon is conspicuously absent. They're blocking AI agents via robots.txt while building proprietary tools (Rufus, "Buy For Me"). That's $56 billion in annual advertising revenue they're protecting. They won't participate in open protocols that threaten their customer data monopoly.
The divide is clear: Open protocols backed by retail coalitions versus closed ecosystems controlling the full stack.
Your Action Timeline
This week: Check Merchant Center. Business Agent activation might already be available if you're a US retailer with eligible accounts.
This month: Document actual customer questions. Not aspirational questions. The ones appearing in support tickets, reviews, and chat transcripts. Map product relationships: what pairs with what, what substitutes exist, what compatibility matters.
Next quarter: When the expanded feed spec releases, upload immediately. First movers in conversational discovery establish presence while competitors figure out what to document.
Six months: Direct Offers expands beyond discounts. Plan how you'll deploy bundles, shipping thresholds, and value propositions in conversational formats. The economics differ when AI mediates transactions.
Don't rush: Current Google Ads strategy continues. Direct Offers is additive, not replacement. UCP checkout supplements your website conversions initially.
Do prioritize: Product data expansion. Being absent from the narrative layer means invisibility in AI-mediated commerce.
The Product Data Reality
Most marketing teams aren't prepared for conversational discovery.
Current product feeds optimize for keyword search: title, description, price, image, basic attributes. That worked when Google matched queries to listings.
Conversational commerce operates differently. AI agents interpret context. "Gift for dad who loves grilling" doesn't become "propane grill accessories" through keyword matching. It's scenario understanding.
Your data needs to answer:
What makes this suitable for beginners?
Can this handle high-heat cooking?
What additional items are needed?
How do you maintain this?
If your structured data can't respond to these questions, you're not discoverable.
The work ahead: Extract knowledge from support teams, product reviews, return patterns, and sales conversations. Structure it for agent queries.
This takes months, not weekends. Most companies haven't formalized product knowledge at this level.
Start now. The feed spec releases soon. You'll have limited time to populate before competitors do. Early presence in conversational discovery creates lasting advantage.
What Comes Next
Google announced at NRF on January 11, 2026. Here's the typical rollout pattern:
Expanded Merchant Center attributes go to limited retailers first, broader access following in months. If you're eligible but don't receive early access, contact your Google representative.
PayPal checkout integration is listed as "coming soon." Watch conversion friction when it launches. Google Pay adoption differs from PayPal user behavior. Conversion rates will tell the real story.
Direct Offers will expand. Google explicitly mentioned bundles and free shipping. They're testing discount economics first to measure conversion lift before opening more complex offer formats.
International expansion is inevitable. Launched US-only, but UCP is designed for global deployment. EU market entry will reveal GDPR compliance implementations. That shows how data flows between Google, merchants, and payment providers structure for regulatory compliance.
Watch Amazon's response. They've been quiet while Google assembled this coalition. Either they're building something substantial internally, or they'll be excluded from the open protocol ecosystem while competitors interoperate.
by WB
for the AdAI Ed. Team
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